独立公投 对比 单方面宣布独立

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 Sarawak Independence Day: Restlessness or Struggle? | The People of Asia 

陈邦根所有本土政党都是我们团结的对象所有外来政党的砂拉越人也都是我们团结的对象这里只说独立公投与单方面宣布独立的对比。有史以来全世界有77个国家或地区进行独立公投,有成功的,也有失败的;在砂拉越要通过并举行公投而取得独立的机会微乎其微。马,新,澳,美的独立就没有公投。通过和平谈判,法律途径,及其他各种方法/手段,最后取得独立是肯党唯一的路线,也是砂人唯一选择,目标清晰。独立公投与单方面宣布独立,没有可比性。 惟,希望 GASAK 团队可以在独立的议程上助肯党和砂拉越人一臂之力。

 

 Sarawak Independence Day: Restlessness or Struggle? | The People of Asia

 

 

 

独立公投 对比 单方面宣布独立

陈邦根 2021年1月27日  中英对照 )

首先,所有本土政党都是我们团结的对象(除了冥顽不灵的) 。所有外来政党的砂拉越人也都是我们团结的对象。如何团结他们是另外一个课题,可以商讨。

这里只说独立公投与单方面宣布独立的对比。

有史以来全世界有77个国家或地区进行了独立公投,有成功的,也有失败的;有取得多数票而独立的,也有取得少数票而独立的;有多数票而不受承认的,也有少数票而受承认的;总之并非一帆风顺,也不能保证能最后取得独立。

在砂拉越要通过并举行公投而取得独立的机会微乎其微。它会面对以下的问题:

独立公投提案很可能不被接受为议案(如果能,GPS 早就做了)。如果被接受为议案,仍然有可能不被通过而成法。即便通过,也必然被联邦政府否决。独立公投成功的机率是50对50。

公投是手段。独立是目标。

大选是实现独立的手段,公投也是实现独立的手段。

用一种手段去取得另一种手段而没有确定终极目标是不负责任的。

GASAK少于42位候选人的布局甚至都够不上一种手段。使用残缺的手段试图获得另一个手段是自欺欺人的。

即便得以公投,但如果失败,他们可以半途而废,拍拍屁股走人,肯党就不能,因为我们的目的不是通过某一种手段玩玩把式,不顾成败,而是多管齐下,不达目标誓不休。

若肯党执政,我们可以通过一个独立公投法案。然而,除非联合国要求,一定要在他们监督下进行公投才能承认砂拉越独立,否则我们不采用公投。马来亚,新加坡,澳洲,美国的独立就没有采用公投。

通过和平谈判,法律途径,及其他各种方法/手段,而最后取得独立是肯党唯一的路线,也是砂拉越人民唯一的选择,目标清晰。

肯党的策略如下:
1) 执政砂拉越,
2)   展开与联邦政府的谈判,
3)   单方面宣布独立,
4) 在国内法庭提出诉讼,宣布 1963 年马来西亚协约无效,
5) 在联合国国际法庭挑战马来西亚联邦成立的合法性,
6) 通过投票,取得联合国的承认并要求联合国派维和部队护航,与联邦商谈独立的后续工作及交接事宜。

总之,独立公投与单方面宣布独立,没有可比性。一个准备半途而废的军队,和一个不达目标不言弃的军队,虽然彼此不是敌人,但是不能相提并论。

惟,希望 GASAK 团队可以在独立的议程上助肯党和砂拉越人一臂之力。

 


Independence referendum VS unilateral declaration of independence

 

First of all, all local political parties (except for the stubborn ) can be won over. All Sarawakians from foreign political parties can be won over as well. How to win them over is another issue that can be discussed seperately.

Here we only discuss independence referendum(IR) vs unilateral declaration of independence(UDI) .

In the world history only 77 countries or regions had conducted independence referendums. Some succeeded and some failed; some obtained a majority of votes and became independent and some obtained a minority of votes and succeeded; some secured a majority of votes without being recognised and some were with a minority of votes. In short, it is not all smooth sailing and there is no guarantee that independence will eventually be achieved.

There is very little chance that Sarawak will achieve independence through passing a referendum Ordinance and conducting a referendum. It will face the following problems:

The independent referendum proposal may not to be accepted as a motion (if it works, GPS could have done it long ago). If it was accepted as a motion, it may still not be passed as an Ordinance or law. Even if it was passed, it will inevitably be rejected by the federal government. The probability of a successful referendum is 50 to 50.

Referendum is a means. Independence is a goal.

The general election is a means to achieve independence. The referendum is also a means to achieve independence.

It is irresponsible to use one means to obtain another means without setting the final goal.

GASAK's team with fewer than 42 candidates is not even a means. It is deceptive to try to obtain another by using an incomplete means.

Even if they get a referendum, but if they fail, they can give up and quit. PBK can’t, because our goal is not to play a game through a certain method regardless of success or failure, but to adopt a multi-pronged approach and never say die before achieving the goal.

If the PBK is in power, we can always pass a bill for independence referendum. However, unless the UN requires a referendum to be held under their supervision in order to recognize Sarawak’s independence, we will not adopt a referendum. Malaya, Singapore, Australia, and the United States did not adopt a referendum for their independence.

Through peaceful negotiations, legal channels, and various other methods/means, to finally achieve independence is the only roadmap of PBK and the only choice for the people of Sarawak. The goal is crystal clear.

 

The strategy of the PBK is as follows:
1) To seize power,
2) Start negotiations with the federal government,
3) Unilateral declaration of independence,
4) File lawsuit in a domestic court to declare MA63 Malaysia invalid,
5) Challenge the legality of the establishment of the Federation of Malaysia in the UN International Court,
6) Obtain recognition of the United Nations and request the United Nations to send peacekeeping forces to regulate security while negotiating with the Federation on follow-up work and handover matters.

In short, an independent referendum is not comparable to a unilateral declaration of independence. An army that is ready to give up and quit halfway and an army that will never give up before achieving the goal, are not enemies of each other, but they cannot be compared.

However, it is hoped that the GASAK team can complement PBK and Sarawakians on the UDI agenda.