Oslo Freedom Forum: Activists gather to share secrets of successful protest
BBC: 香港佔領行動中有過千名參與者,一年多前曾經到挪威奧斯陸,接受各國人權分子的特別培訓。BBC说剛過去星期一至三舉行的人權會議「奧斯陸自由論壇」,議題包括香港佔領運動,與會人士都知道運動,早在近兩年前已經策 劃,並非即興,形容是公開的秘密。BBC又说,佔領運動組織者去年1月已計劃,鼓動1萬人佔領街道,期望以非暴力行動形成「大規模破壞的武器」,挑戰中央政府。
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it is an open secret at this meeting in Norway that plans were hatched in Hong Kong for the demonstrations nearly two years ago.
The ideas was to use non-violent action as a "weapon of mass destruction" to challenge the Chinese government.
Organisers prepared a plan to persuade 10,000 people on to the streets, to occupy roads in central Hong Kong, back in January 2013.
BBC:港逾千佔領者曾到挪威特訓
1、佔中的成因,本質上不是泛民、建制之爭,而是幾乎全香港各階層的盲目性運動,所以根本上是個群體性的作死運動;
2、佔中所依仗的依據,無論是英美情報機構,還是泛民、建制所分析的情況,從根本上是完全錯誤的,所以這項運動絕對達不到任何目 的;
3、佔中運動,現在其實就是在泛民和香港行政官員之間的唱雙簧運動,目的就是給大陸施壓,他們之間是有爭權奪利的動機,但在本質 上並沒有什麼不同;
4、大陸的無招勝有招是個妙招,完全出乎了香港各階層和英美情報機構的意料,使得他們狼狽不堪,所以現在整個佔中運動已經變成了 羞刀難入鞘了;
5、大陸一開始是對佔中是有些棘手,但是隨著形勢的發展,突然發現佔中卻是大大的有利於自己,所以現在貫徹了不管不顧的做法,完 全沒有任何動作,希望香港再亂下去;
6、這次佔中無論如何收場,香港都會沉淪下去。而大陸反而成了獲利最多的一方。
一、香港一國兩制的起因
這裡不討論複雜的「一國兩制」的談判過程,當時是80年代談判的,為了讓香港順利回歸,為了給台灣一個表率,為了給大陸的改革開 放一個窗口,所以《中英聯合聲明》裡,中方的讓步是較大的。
現在看來,有些讓步恰巧成了——香港不通過23條,形成這次佔中、香港媒體和教育界群魔亂舞的原因。
不過應該知道,當時大陸的國力很弱,所以有些政策是可以理解的。
二、為什麼大陸堅持17年普選方案
隨著大陸國力的增強,從世界20幾位發展到第二,中國的國策其實已經改變了。
這從韜光養晦——和諧——中國夢,就可以看出。
不評價以前的國策,就說什麼是中國夢吧!說到底,就是在國際上豎立起相對於國力第二的大國霸主地位。沒看錯,就是霸主!
具體的做法,其實從航母、南海、建立法治治國等等可以看出。這裡不詳敘了。
但是大陸的外交、軍事、一國兩制、民族政策、經濟等等,都有很多的戰略調整。而這在現在大陸的理論界和政府內也有一些混亂和爭 執。所以造成了某一方面的混亂,使得外人雲裡霧裡看不清。但是總的趨勢,是不會因為外界而改變的。
而香港的實際情況又是如何呢?
因為香港沿襲了英國的政治制度,講究的也是三權分立。
但是法律界,因為有著大量的外籍法官和他們的門生,所以整個法律界其實已經被外國勢力,或者說是香港獨立勢力控制住了。
而立法會,因為香港有著幾百萬雙重國籍的人,這些人選出的議員很可能控制住整個立法會。
那麼只剩下行政長官了。由於23條沒有通過,所以萬一選出個贊同獨立的行政長官,他宣布獨立或者不統不獨?大陸該怎麼辦?
所以大陸的17年普選,是最後的底線,是絕不能讓步的。只有通過控制行政長官的人選,保住三權分立的最後一個角了。
三、香港經濟到底出了什麼問題
不討論具體實例,只談論本質原因。
首先是大陸崛起太快,讓香港各階層民眾產生了極大的心理落差。
在當年《聯合聲明》的時候,可能中英雙方,甚至香港本地民眾都沒預料到,回歸才17年,大陸會騰飛得這麼快。他們本來以為,憑著 香港作為改革開放窗口的作用,吃紅利也能吃個幾代人,做高貴的香港同胞也能做個一輩子。沒想到只有17年啊!
具體的例子:什麼雙非、奶粉、蝗蟲就不多說了。反正整個香港社會民眾全部心裡失衡。
其次是香港歷屆行政長官極其無能。
不要說什麼高效的公務員體制。就看看影視業吧。把一個世界排第二、三的影視基地,背靠著大陸市場,弄得全面崩潰。而大陸現在卻是 韓流橫行。
所以香港的行政官員和公務員,可能是個很好的執行者,但是決策水平,說句打臉的話,連大陸的地級市市長,甚至縣長都不如。也許就 是會多說幾句粵語和外語罷了。
最後是香港本地人根本沒有發展香港本地的信心。
很顯然,香港大部分人都有外國國籍了,他們有了退路,怎麼會努力呢?更可笑的是,這些人從香港帶到國外幾千億、上萬億的資金,為 了移民,在國外購置不動產。沒了資金,香港還要做金融中心,這不是笑話嗎?
四、關於這次佔中時,英美情報機構和香港泛民、建制的決策
他們認為:香港是為台灣的一國兩製做表率的,所以香港一亂,可以打大陸的臉。這點是對的。
他們還認為:香港作為大陸的窗口,如果香港亂,那麼大陸的經濟將會大受影響,甚至崩潰,所以大陸會氣急敗壞。
而這點是絕對錯誤的,是把20年前的經驗用到了這裡。大陸發展到了今天,其實已經不怎麼需要香港了,只是為了一國兩制的表率,反 而是在向香港輸血,維持著香港的地位。
所以我們可以看出,前些天BBC拋出培訓上千人亂港(見附錄),難道BBC是內奸?其實是英美的情報機構知道他們錯了,他們不願 意再花經費了,這些炮灰就拋出去吧!
而泛民和建制,不說勾結,起碼也有默契。他們認為這樣鬧一鬧,可以從大陸再獲取好處。雖然目的不同,但是向大陸施壓的想法相同。
這可以從梁振英女兒臉書挑釁、梁振英幾次無腦發言就可以看出。真的是他沒政治頭腦嗎?其實在內心中,他也是希望香港鬧下去的。
所以本來所有人都準備好了,無論大陸加大輸血,還是坦克鎮壓,他們都有一套完備的方案。可是大陸當作沒看見,他們就抓瞎了,完全 就是手足無措了。
五、大陸的得失
在佔中一開始,大陸是很難堪。因為沒了面子。可是現在面子已經沒了,那就要考慮利益了。
正好,香港亂吧。反正大陸正好有藉口不再輸血,正好有藉口不再維持香港的地位。反正是你們自己亂的。
而且香港不交稅,又沒有重要的研究體系和工廠,根本不怕什麼損失。難道怕你迪士尼開不下去嗎?
這就理解為什麼大陸無招勝有招了。他們就像是看小丑般,看著你們自己唱雙簧,自己在玩。
六、香港未來預測
這次香港各階層讓大陸沒面子,那就不要怪大陸以後不給香港各階層面子。自己沉淪下去吧!
而且現在泛民和建制是羞刀難入鞘,又被英美主子拋棄了。為了維持士氣,他們就不斷地提條件,希望大陸多少給一點。這樣他們就可以 對外宣布「勝利」,妄圖以後再捲土重來。
可是……
你們看著吧!做夢想屁吃。
大陸現在在偷笑著甩掉香港這個包袱呢。越來越感到獲利很多。而且讓國內的人看穿了這些西方民主的醜惡嘴臉。
大陸現在就是當你不存在,你會怎麼辦?泛民和建制把極端分子挑動起來了,現在想讓他們收手,已經做不到了,你們該怎麼辦?
【附錄】
BBC:港逾千佔領者曾到挪威特訓
英國廣播公司報道,香港佔領行動中有過千名參與者,一年多前曾經到挪威奧斯陸,接受各國人權分子的特別培訓。
報道指,剛過去星期一至三舉行的人權會議「奧斯陸自由論壇」,議題包括香港佔領運動,與會人士都知道運動,早在近兩年前已經策 劃,並非即興,形容是公開的秘密。
報道又指,佔領運動組織者去年1月已計劃,鼓動1萬人佔領街道,期望以非暴力行動形成「大規模破壞的武器」,挑戰中央政府。而超 過一千名參與佔領 人士曾獲特別訓練,以令佔領行動達至最大效果。報道又指,曾經參與北京八九學運的中國維權人士楊建利,差不多每隔一小時,就向香港佔領人士提供意見。
他指參與佔領的學生,較當年的更有組織。美國人權組織「愛因斯坦」研究所總幹事指,示威者接受的訓練,包括如何應對警方、被捕時 要怎做,及如何應付水炮或其他警方使用的武力等。
報道原文:http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29708917
Oslo Freedom Forum: Activists gather to share secrets of successful protest
The forum is taking place while protests continue in Hong KongWhere might you find a North Korean defector, a self-confessed Serbian troublemaker, a Tiananmen Square protester and members of punk group Pussy Riot in the same room?
While Hong Kong's students continue their protests and stumbling negotiations with the territory's authorities, democracy activists from around the world, some of whom have helped their struggle, gather together.
The Oslo Freedom Forum is one of the biggest meetings of human rights activists in the world, and this year its rather surreal proceedings have a different tension, as activists trying to take on Beijing's actions in Hong Kong seek to hold their ground.
Activists are furious at what they see as Beijing's proposals to fix the election of Hong Kong's next chief executive.
'Trained demonstrators'However, far from being impromptu demonstrations, it is an open secret at this meeting in Norway that plans were hatched in Hong Kong for the demonstrations nearly two years ago.
The ideas was to use non-violent action as a "weapon of mass destruction" to challenge the Chinese government.
Organisers prepared a plan to persuade 10,000 people on to the streets, to occupy roads in central Hong Kong, back in January 2013.
They believed that China's moves to control the Hong Kong election would provide a flashpoint where civil disobedience could be effective, and planned accordingly.
Their strategies were not just to plan the timing and nature of the demonstrations, but also how they would be run.
Veterans of previous protests in China have praised the organisation of activists in Hong KongBBC Newsnight has been told that some leading protestors received advice and materials from Western activists to help them train as many as 1,000 of those who would later be involved in the demonstrations
'New world race'Yang Jianli, a Chinese academic, was part of the protests in Tiananmen Square 25 years ago.
He has been talking to the Hong Kong students on a daily basis.
He says that the students are better organised than the Tiananmen protesters ever were, with clearer, more effective structures for their action and clearer goals about what they are trying to achieve.
But he adds that responsibility for what happens next is not just down to the protesters themselves, not just down to other democracy activists like those gathered here in Oslo, but to the rest of the world.
Jamila Raqib, the executive director of the Albert Einstein Institution based near Boston, which analyses and distributes studies on non-violent struggle, says it is clear that protesters have been trained how to behave during a protest.
"How to keep ranks, how to speak to police, how to manage their own movement, how to use marshals in their movement, people who are specially trained.
"It was also how to behave when arrested - practical things like the need for food and water, movement can last longer when people are taken care of, and also how to manage a water cannon being used against you, and other types of police violence."
In a statement Occupy Central with Love and Peace (OCLP) said none of its members had attended the Oslo Freedom Forum or received "any specific training" from the organisations mentioned in this report.
OCLP said it had openly held "non-violent protest" workshops in Hong Kong but these were "wholly organized by OCLP, without any support or intervention from foreign organisations."
It also said the "inititiators" of OCLP had never been in contact with Yang Jianli, nor had OCLP been in contact with Jamila Raqib.
Protests don't always work.
Srdja Popovic, one of the student leaders involved in overthrowing Slobodan Milosevic, was another of the protest veterans in Oslo.
Srdja Popovic says you have to understand the "rules of the non-military battlefield"He has since trained activists in 40 countries, but he says the techniques of non-violent action that he advocates have led to successful and lasting change in only six or seven countries.
He argues that there is more need than ever for the methods of organisation and leadership to be shared.
He says that after the 20th Century military race, "what we are seeing now is a new world race - now it is 'can the good guys learn as well as the bad guys?'."
'Schmoozing for democracy'Mr Popovic has not had any involvement with the Hong Kong protests, but says whether in Georgia, Ukraine, Egypt or Hong Kong "you can look at these movements - and see the set of rules".
"You have to understand the rules of the non-military battlefield."
His work in Oslo, along with the writings of the American human rights activist, Gene Sharp, is in high demand.
There is something incongruous about the Oslo meeting - seeing Chinese dissidents, American computer hackers, activists from Africa, the Middle East and Russia trade information over champagne and canapés.
Members of Pussy Riot are attending the Oslo Freedom Forum. Watch Laura's report
Like any conference, a good deal of the work is done after hours, even if it is schmoozing for democracy.
Two members of Russian opposition female punk group Pussy Riot, members of which were put in jail by President Putin, are here too.
They say they want to "make personal contacts" and meet others doing similar human rights work.
What this event shows is that struggles for democracy or human rights in the 21st Century rarely happen in isolation.
Activists, whether those on the streets of Hong Kong right now, or from other parts of the world, are sharing information and insights faster than ever before.
30 October: Correction
This article has been amended after an earlier version may have given the impression that the Hong Kong pro-democracy protests were planned by foreign activists. The amended version makes clear that the planning for the Hong Kong demonstrations was carried out in Hong Kong, with support from abroad. It includes a statement from Occupy Central with Love and Peace (OCLP), saying that none of its members had attended the Oslo Freedom Forum or received "any specific training" from the organisations mentioned in this report. The amended article also makes clear that Mr Popovic has not had any involvement with the Hong Kong protests.

